Integrating GIS and Markov chain for land use change prediction in Dong Hoa district, Phu Yen province

Abstract

Observation, evaluation, and prediction of land-use change are indispensable subjects aiming to achieve sustainable land management. In recent years, the using land demand for different purposes in developing activities is increasing in Dong Hoa district, making the land-use change situation increasingly complicated and hard to control. This study integrated GIS and Markov chain to examine land-use changes in Dong Hoa district over the period from 2010 to 2015, 2015 to 2020, and predict land-use changes for 2025 and 2030 as a foundation for policy decision-makers to manage and use land rationally, economically, and effectively. The results suggest that non-use land until 2025 reduced significantly and this trend is expected to continue by 2030 (99.84% compared to 2010); of which non-agricultural land achieved a rapid increase (about 268.8% compared to 2010); while agricultural area showed a sharp decline (approximately 71.5% compared to 2010). It is believed that only 2230.26 hectares (ha) of agricultural land will be remained in 2030 due to the district’s oriented development which focuses on technical infrastructure establishment, industrial base land of Nam Phu Yen economic zone, and Dong Hoa district is becoming a city in the future; Forest land decreased about 2995.14 ha (27.22% compared to 2010), and it is predicted to remain only 8006.84 ha by 2030 because of the expansion of non-agricultural land.