The trend of salinity changes at coastal stations in The Mekong Delta during the period 1996-2018

Abstract

The Mekong Delta (MKD) is increasingly suffering from the adverse effects of saline intrusion, primarily due to climate change-sea level rise (SLR), upstream hydropower development, and mangrove forest degradation. This study focuses on using statistical methods to assess salinity changes, by determining the frequency of salinity through ANOVA variance analysis and frequency analysis based on data series from 1996 to 2018 at monitoring stations. The results show that the increasing trend of salinity (at Binh Dai, Ben Trai, Loc Thuan, Huong My, Son Doc, An Thuan, Hung My, Tra Vinh, Cau Quan, Long Phu, Dai Ngai, Phuoc Long, Ganh Hao, CaMau) accounts for 70%, while the decreasing trend of salinity (at Hoa Binh, Vam Kenh, Tra Kha, Tran De, Soc Trang, Song Doc) accounts for 30%. Regarding to frequency analysis, at a frequency of 90%, the stations (Phuoc Long, Ganh Hao, Ca Mau, Song Doc) exceed 33‰, and at a frequency of 95%, the stations (Tran De, Phuoc Long, Ganh Hao, Ca Mau, Song Doc) exceed 33‰. The study's results, which determine the trend of salinity changes, provide a database for further in-depth research as well as support for disaster management efforts concerning local saline intrusion.