An application of the multi-physical method of determining error of WRF models to simulate the track and intensity Usagi storm in 2018

Abstract

This paper presents the test results of the WRF model error determination methods simulating the trajectory and intensity of storm Usagi in 2018. The study conducted three experiments: (1) The Combination of 11 options physical model, 21 composites, no increase in error correlation (MP); (2) Using a set of physical model, 21 composite components, multiplier growth factor l = 6.5 (MI); (3) Using a set of physical model, 21 compositions, no increase in error correlation (PF). Test results show that the multi-physics (MP) method has quite well simulated the intensity as well as the moving direction of the northern cold high pressure in the active Usagi storm area. As a result, The 2018 - Usagi 's trajectory and intensity is simulated in MP test better than in MI test and PF test. Specifically, at the 48-hour forecast term, the orbital prediction error of the MP test is below 350 km which is lower than the two tests (MI and PF), The orbital error in the MP test at the forecast term of 60 and 72 hours is 3-6% reduction in compared with the PF test, and in compared with the MI test, the orbital predictive error of the MP test decreased from 5% to 10% at the 12 hour to 72 hours forecast period. In terms of intensity, absolute error of Pmin (Vmax) in MP test always has lower value than two MI and PF tests. In particular, the absolute error of Vmax in the MP test decreased from 30-40% in compared to the other two trials at all forecasting terms, especially at the forecast term longer than 2 days. Thus, the multi-physics method can be a potential application of determining the error for the model to simulate the trajectory and intensity of storms affecting Vietnam.